Iran is a nation that commands both admiration and disdain, often for its own contradictions. It has experienced periods of grandeur, fueled by its unique geostrategic position. Nestled at the crossroads of the Middle East and Eurasia, Iran holds a pivotal spot in global history. It is bordered by the Persian Gulf on the west and the inhospitable Balochistan desert on the east, while the harsh terrain of the Hindukush mountains stretches into Afghanistan and Iran's Sistan region, making it a land of strategic opportunities and vulnerabilities.
Iran’s geography has played a central role in its fate. Its position in the heart of land corridors connecting East and West has historically invited invasions, yet it has also allowed Iran to expand and exert influence. While neighboring Pakistan adjusted to repeated invasions through its complex geography, Iran lacked the luxury of such natural defenses and had to rely on diplomacy and political maneuvering to secure its place.
Historically, Iran reached its imperial zenith under Cyrus the Great in 550 BC. The Achaemenid Empire, the largest of its time, spanned across much of the modern Middle East, Central Asia, and even parts of North Africa and Europe, leaving an indelible mark on history. Despite the grandeur of these empires, Iran’s territorial limits were always confined to certain borders, notably never beyond the River Indus. This omission, though, shaped future relations with its neighbors and had lasting geopolitical consequences.
By the 19th century, the once mighty Iranian Empire had faded, but the sense of lost glory and regional power still lingers. This sentiment colored Iran’s reaction to the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021. Iran shares close ethnic and sectarian ties with the population in parts of Afghanistan, particularly from Herat to Kunduz, and even more so with the Hazarajat in the southwest. This proximity fueled Iran's attempts to leverage Afghanistan's political landscape during the US withdrawal. However, the swift rise of the Taliban shattered Iran's plans, leaving it frustrated with the developments in Afghanistan.
Iran had initially hoped to influence the future of Afghanistan by inviting Taliban leader Mullah Baradar to Tehran, aiming to form a government of national unity with Ashraf Ghani's administration. However, Ghani’s abrupt flight and the Taliban's lightning-quick ascent to power dashed those hopes. Iran was left to contend with a Taliban regime filled with leaders who hold deep sectarian differences with the Shiite Iranian government. In contrast, Pakistan’s better relations with the Taliban were seen by Iran as a threat to its own ambitions in the region.
Iran's attempts to use its influence over the Taliban were also evident in its strategic partnership with India. India, eager to gain access to Central Asian markets, worked with Iran to develop the Chabahar port and connect it to Afghanistan through the Chabahar-Zaranj Road. However, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban rendered these efforts futile. Iran now perceives itself as the "net loser" in this scenario, as Pakistan, the Taliban, and their Gulf Arab allies appear to have gained the upper hand.
In the background of these geopolitics, Iran has long supported Baloch insurgents, providing them with resources and sanctuary. The Baloch separatists, in turn, have been armed with advanced weaponry, which has increased tensions between Iran and Pakistan. Iran's role in nurturing such insurgencies is not new; in the past, Iranian intelligence has been implicated in various regional sabotage operations. Furthermore, Iran’s cozy relationship with India, at Pakistan’s expense, has long been a point of contention. This unholy alliance was evident when Indian spy Kalbhushan Yadav was captured in Pakistan after operating out of Tehran.
The sectarian dimension of Iran's policies is also significant. Since the 1980s, Iran has sought to promote Shia militancy, stoking sectarian tensions within Pakistan, and supporting groups that work against Pakistan's interests. Their support for groups like the Zenabyoon and Fatimyoon brigades, who fight in Syria and Iraq, illustrates Iran's broader strategy to project power through proxy forces. This has led to a deepening schism within the Islamic world, particularly between Sunni and Shia factions, and Iran's efforts have contributed to destabilizing the region.
Iran's bitterness towards Pakistan was openly expressed after the fall of Panjshir in 2021, when Tehran's state media accused Pakistan of being involved in the attacks. This accusation was based on misleading reports from India and the US, which were trying to make sense of their rapid collapse in Afghanistan. The Iranian government also allowed anti-Pakistan demonstrations to take place in Tehran, showing how the country had used its propaganda to shift blame onto Pakistan.
Iran's leadership, particularly the clerical regime in Tehran, operates in a harsh theocratic environment where dissent is crushed brutally. As witnessed in 1997, the regime's ruthlessness extends to even the smallest signs of opposition, with executions carried out in the dead of night. This brutal suppression is driven by a deep-seated sense of persecution dating back to the mass conversion to Shiism in the 16th century. Iran's political agenda, particularly under the leadership of figures like Ayatollah Khomeini, has sought to position itself as the defender of Shia Islam, often at the expense of Sunni-majority nations like Pakistan.
Iran’s discomfort with a nuclear Pakistan and its increasing influence in Afghanistan is rooted in a deep-seated desire to maintain regional supremacy. Iran’s pursuit of regional power and its frustrations over its changing fortunes in Afghanistan and its relationship with Pakistan continue to shape its foreign policy. Despite its religious fervor and outward piety, Iran's actions are often driven by a ruthless geopolitical calculation aimed at retaining its place as a dominant regional power.